What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.41.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

year over year inflation on Kalshi

If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.5% in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 47 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

5% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.8%	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	52%	2,432	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.6%? · Exactly 2.6%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,184	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.5%	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	2,162	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.6%? · Exactly 3.6%	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	1,879	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.4%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,799	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.0%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,740	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.1%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,645	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.8%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,590	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.3%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,575	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.2%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,523	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.4%? · Exactly 3.4%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	1,428	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.7%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,425	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.6%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,425	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.5%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,425	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.9%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,421	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 4.0%? · Exactly 4.0%	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	1,383	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.7%? · Exactly 3.7%	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	1,267	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.8%? · Exactly 3.8%	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	1,255	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.0%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,210	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.4%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,201	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.3%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,201	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.2%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,201	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.1%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,201	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.9%? · Exactly 3.9%	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	1,181	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.5%? · Exactly 3.5%	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	1,009	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 4.2%? · Exactly 4.2%	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	922	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 4.0%	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	814	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 4.1%? · Exactly 4.1%	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	761	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.6%	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	751	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 4.1%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	745	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.7%	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	706	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 4.2%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	690	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 4.3%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	686	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 4.3%? · Exactly 4.3%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	620	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.3%? · Exactly 3.3%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	332	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.9%	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	327	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 4.4%	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	194	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.2%? · Exactly 3.2%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	193	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 4.5%? · Exactly 4.5%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	183	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.5%? · Exactly 2.5%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	182	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 47 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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