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What will ULTA Beauty say during its earnings call? on Kalshi
If Uncertainty is said by any Ulta Beauty, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Ulta Beauty, Inc. live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Ulta Beauty, Inc. Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
68%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
63% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 69¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.09 | 70.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Uncertainty | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 84 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · AI / Artificial Intelligence | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 81 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Traffic | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Times Square | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · TikTok | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Tariff | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Tailwind | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Store Opening | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Reward | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Rare Beauty | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Luxury | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · K-Beauty (3+ times) | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Iran / Middle East | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Holiday | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Headwind | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Google / Gemini | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Diamond | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Bath & Body Works | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Mar 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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