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Tesla earnings mention on Kalshi
If Waymo is said by any Tesla representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Tesla live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Tesla, Inc. Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
81%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
38% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 81¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $0.66 | 82.1% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Semi | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 264 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Solar | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 201 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Cybercab | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 132 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Miami | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 100 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Cybertruck | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 86 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 29 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Gigafactory | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 9 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Merge / Merger | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 7 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · SpaceX / xAI | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 5 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Roadster | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 3 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Grok (3+ times) | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 2 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Waymo | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Tariff | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Terafab | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Supercharger / Super Charger | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Samsung | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Megapack 3 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Intel | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · Competition | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
| What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? · China | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Apr 27, 22:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.