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Target on Kalshi
If Tariff is said by any Target Corporation representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Target Corporation live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Target Corporation Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
78%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
45% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 78¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.77 | 79.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · PetaJane / Peta Jane | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 473 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Inflation | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 363 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Fun 101 | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 150 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · OpenAI / Open AI | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 144 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Roundel | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 139 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Beauty (3+ times) | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 117 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Agentic | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 89 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Remodel (3+ times) | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 85 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Competition | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 73 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Target Plus | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 68 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Tariff | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 47 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Back to School | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 23 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Circle 360 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 9 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Revenue | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 6 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Target Corporation say during their next earnings call? · SNAP / Food Stamp | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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