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Progressive Earnings Call on Kalshi
If Snapshot is said by any The Progressive Corporation representative (including the operator of the call) during the next The Progressive Corporation live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Progressive Corporation Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
69%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
62% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 69¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.09 | 70.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Captive | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 94 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Reinsurance | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 6 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Agency Network | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 5 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Merger / M&A | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 2 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Snapshot | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Inflation | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Homeowner | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Catastrophe | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Buyback / Buy Back | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Bundle / Bundling | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · AI / Artificial Intelligence | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Agentic (3+ times) | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | May 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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