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Intuitive Machines earnings call on Kalshi
If SpaceX is said by any Intuitive Machines, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Intuitive Machines, Inc. live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Intuitive Machines, Inc. Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
43%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
86% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Intuitive Machines, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Goonhilly Earth Station | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 476 | Feb 10, 13:30 UTC |
| What will Intuitive Machines, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Nuclear | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 402 | Feb 10, 13:30 UTC |
| What will Intuitive Machines, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Artemis IV | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 215 | Feb 10, 13:30 UTC |
| What will Intuitive Machines, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Moon Base | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 184 | Feb 10, 13:30 UTC |
| What will Intuitive Machines, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Golden Dome | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 107 | Feb 10, 13:30 UTC |
| What will Intuitive Machines, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · AI / Artificial Intelligence | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 107 | Feb 10, 13:30 UTC |
| What will Intuitive Machines, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Mars (3+ times) | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 95 | Feb 10, 13:30 UTC |
| What will Intuitive Machines, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Space Force | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 34 | Feb 10, 13:30 UTC |
| What will Intuitive Machines, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · China / Chinese | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 18 | Feb 10, 13:30 UTC |
| What will Intuitive Machines, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · SpaceX | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Feb 10, 13:30 UTC |
| What will Intuitive Machines, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Artemis III | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Feb 10, 13:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.