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Duolingo Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Duolingo Inc. reports Above 14600000.0 paid subscribers in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 61 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 61 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,287 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 68.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 68.5 million | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,069 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 67 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 67 million | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 559 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 62.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 62.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 552 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 14.4 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026? · Above 14.4 million | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 506 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 63.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 63.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 501 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 60.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 60.5 million | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 472 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 61.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 61.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 428 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 66 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 66 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 381 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 66.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 66.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 294 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 64.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 64.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 272 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 62 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 62 million | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 234 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 68 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 68 million | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 219 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 13.6 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026? · Above 13.6 million | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 187 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 14.2 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026? · Above 14.2 million | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 169 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 67.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 67.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 146 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 14.6 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026? · Above 14.6 million | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 113 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 63 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 63 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 108 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 65.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 65.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 107 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 13.8 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026? · Above 13.8 million | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 74 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 64 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 64 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 29 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 13.4 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026? · Above 13.4 million | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 21 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 14 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026? · Above 14 million | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 14 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 65 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 65 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 9 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 69 million daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 69 million | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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