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How many DSA members will there be at the end of 2026? on Kalshi
If the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing is above 120,000 as reported for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 130000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 130,000 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 6,049 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 160000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 160,000 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 4,010 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 140000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 140,000 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,323 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 150000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 150,000 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,194 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 190000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 190,000 | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 609 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 170000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 170,000 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 416 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 180000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 180,000 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 27 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 200000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 200,000 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 1 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 120000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 120,000 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 110000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 110,000 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 220000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 220,000 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 210000 as reported for December 2026? · Above 210,000 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Feb 07, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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