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DP World Tour R2 Leader on Kalshi
If Yuto Katsuragawa is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 DP World Tour Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, DP World Tour.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 50 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuto Katsuragawa leads at the end of Round 2 · Yuto Katsuragawa | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Victor Perez leads at the end of Round 2 · Victor Perez | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Thriston Lawrence leads at the end of Round 2 · Thriston Lawrence | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Tyrrell Hatton leads at the end of Round 2 · Tyrrell Hatton | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Tommy Fleetwood leads at the end of Round 2 · Tommy Fleetwood | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Shaun Norris leads at the end of Round 2 · Shaun Norris | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Rory McIlroy leads at the end of Round 2 · Rory McIlroy | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Ryan Fox leads at the end of Round 2 · Ryan Fox | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Patrick Reed leads at the end of Round 2 · Patrick Reed | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Oliver Lindell leads at the end of Round 2 · Oliver Lindell | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Niklas Norgaard leads at the end of Round 2 · Niklas Norgaard | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Nacho Elvira leads at the end of Round 2 · Nacho Elvira | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Matt Wallace leads at the end of Round 2 · Matt Wallace | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Mikael Lindberg leads at the end of Round 2 · Mikael Lindberg | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Matthew Jordan leads at the end of Round 2 · Matthew Jordan | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Manuel Elvira leads at the end of Round 2 · Manuel Elvira | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Martin Couvra leads at the end of Round 2 · Martin Couvra | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Marcus Armitage leads at the end of Round 2 · Marcus Armitage | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Kristoffer Reitan leads at the end of Round 2 · Kristoffer Reitan | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Kota Kaneko leads at the end of Round 2 · Kota Kaneko | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Jeff Winther leads at the end of Round 2 · Jeff Winther | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Jayden Schaper leads at the end of Round 2 · Jayden Schaper | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Jon Rahm leads at the end of Round 2 · Jon Rahm | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Jacob Skov Olesen leads at the end of Round 2 · Jacob Skov Olesen | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Joost Luiten leads at the end of Round 2 · Joost Luiten | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Julien Guerrier leads at the end of Round 2 · Julien Guerrier | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Joe Dean leads at the end of Round 2 · Joe Dean | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Jorge Campillo leads at the end of Round 2 · Jorge Campillo | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Hennie Du Plessis leads at the end of Round 2 · Hennie Du Plessis | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Grant Forrest leads at the end of Round 2 · Grant Forrest | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Gregorio De Leo leads at the end of Round 2 · Gregorio De Leo | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Freddy Schott leads at the end of Round 2 · Freddy Schott | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Francesco Laporta leads at the end of Round 2 · Francesco Laporta | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Frederic Lacroix leads at the end of Round 2 · Frederic Lacroix | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra leads at the end of Round 2 · Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Ewen Ferguson leads at the end of Round 2 · Ewen Ferguson | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| David Puig leads at the end of Round 2 · David Puig | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Daniel Hillier leads at the end of Round 2 · Daniel Hillier | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Davis Bryant leads at the end of Round 2 · Davis Bryant | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
| Dan Bradbury leads at the end of Round 2 · Dan Bradbury | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 29, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 50 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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