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DOJ beef-retailer antitrust action on Kalshi
If the U.S. Department of Justice's filing of a civil antitrust complaint against any listed grocery retailer in its beef-affordability investigation is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, NBC News, The Information, CBS News, ABC News, The Washington Post, Axios, Fox News, CNN, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DOJ sue a major grocery retailer over beef prices? · Yes | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,546 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.