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Liga DIMAYOR Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Pasto vs Junior professional Colombian Liga DIMAYOR soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
52% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional wins · Atletico Nacional | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 2,359 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Once Caldas wins · Once Caldas | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 911 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| America Cali wins · America Cali | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 164 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Junior wins · Junior | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 87 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Independ. Santa Fe wins · Independ. Santa Fe | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 59 | Nov 16, 01:30 UTC |
| Bucaramanga wins · Bucaramanga | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 55 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Llaneros wins · Llaneros | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 41 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 9 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Cali wins · Cali | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 4 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Cucuta wins · Cucuta | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 3 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 3 | Nov 16, 01:30 UTC |
| Millonarios wins · Millonarios | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Aguilas Doradas Rionegro wins · Aguilas Doradas Rionegro | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 2 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Pasto wins · Pasto | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Boyaca Chico wins · Boyaca Chico | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Internacional de Bogota wins · Internacional de Bogota | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 16, 01:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Ind. Medellin wins · Ind. Medellin | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Alianza FC Valledupar wins · Alianza FC Valledupar | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Jaguares wins · Jaguares | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Fortaleza wins · Fortaleza | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Tolima wins · Tolima | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Pereira wins · Pereira | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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