What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 99¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.04.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 99% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 99%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Democratic House seats (Directional) on Kalshi

If the Democratic party has above 277 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: United States Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)

99%

Median YES price across 23 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
99¢ (now)	0.1¢	$0.04	99.1%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the Democratic party hold more than 250 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 250	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	22,956	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 220 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 220	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	22,363	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 244 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 244	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	17,166	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 256 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 256	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	11,663	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 229 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 229	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	10,439	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 223 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 223	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	9,595	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 241 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 241	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	9,547	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 235 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 235	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	9,488	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 253 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 253	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	7,212	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 232 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 232	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	7,123	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 217 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 217	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	6,172	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 238 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 238	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	5,643	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 247 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 247	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	5,265	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 259 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 259	88¢	88%	0.8¢	—	25%	5,136	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 214 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 214	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,078	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 262 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 262	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	4,573	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 226 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 226	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	4,244	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 265 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 265	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	3,329	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 211 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 211	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,707	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 268 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 268	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,401	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 274 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 274	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	42	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 277 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 277	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 271 House seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 271	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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