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DFB Pokal Winner on Kalshi
If Wolfsburg is the 2026-27 DFB Pokal Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Bayern Munich | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 20,723 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Dortmund win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Dortmund | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 3,458 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Leverkusen win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Leverkusen | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,386 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Hamburg win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Hamburg | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,340 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Augsburg win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Augsburg | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,334 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Wolfsburg win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Wolfsburg | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,332 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Mainz win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Mainz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,318 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Union Berlin win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Union Berlin | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,300 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Bremen win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Bremen | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,300 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Elversberg win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Elversberg | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,300 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will St. Pauli win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · St. Pauli | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,300 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Schalke win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Schalke | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,300 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Paderborn win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Paderborn | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,300 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Heidenheim win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Heidenheim | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,300 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will M´gladbach win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · M´gladbach | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 969 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Leipzig win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Leipzig | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 919 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will FC Cologne win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · FC Cologne | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 900 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Freiburg win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Freiburg | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 859 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Hoffenheim win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Hoffenheim | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 846 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Stuttgart win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Stuttgart | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 812 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Will Frankfurt win the 2026-27 DFB Pokal? · Frankfurt | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 810 | Jun 12, 18:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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