What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 41¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.06.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 43% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 41%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Democratic statewide sweeps on Kalshi

If ALL of the Democratic candidates for every partisan statewide office in Washington except President win their respective elections in the November 7, 2028 general elections and any runoffs from them by Dec 5, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Delaware Department of Elections, Georgia Secretary of State, Arizona Secretary of State, Texas Secretary of State, Washington Secretary of State, Oregon Secretary of State, Ohio Secretary of State, Michigan Department of State, North Carolina State Board of Elections, New Hampshire Secretary of State, Pennsylvania Department of State, Vermont Secretary of State.

Market says (typical open contract)

41%

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

82% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
41¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.07	42.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Democratic statewide sweep in Washington? · Washington	79¢	79%	1.2¢	—	42%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Democratic statewide sweep in Vermont? · Vermont	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Democratic statewide sweep in Texas? · Texas	23¢	23%	1.2¢	—	46%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Democratic statewide sweep in Pennsylvania? · Pennsylvania	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	68%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Democratic statewide sweep in Oregon? · Oregon	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	40%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Democratic statewide sweep in Ohio? · Ohio	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	64%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Democratic statewide sweep in New Hampshire? · New Hampshire	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Democratic statewide sweep in North Carolina? · North Carolina	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Democratic statewide sweep in Michigan? · Michigan	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Democratic statewide sweep in Georgia? · Georgia	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	84%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Democratic statewide sweep in Delaware? · Delaware	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	32%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Democratic statewide sweep in Arizona? · Arizona	33¢	33%	1.5¢	—	66%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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