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Datadog annual kpi on Kalshi
If Datadog, Inc. reports Above 5160 customers with arr over $100k in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
59%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
82% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 59¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.44 | 60.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5140 customers with arr over $100k in fiscal 2026? · Above 5140 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 3,724 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5120 customers with arr over $100k in fiscal 2026? · Above 5120 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 3,477 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5160 customers with arr over $100k in fiscal 2026? · Above 5160 | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 1,858 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5080 customers with arr over $100k in fiscal 2026? · Above 5080 | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 1,776 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5100 customers with arr over $100k in fiscal 2026? · Above 5100 | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 1,585 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5060 customers with arr over $100k in fiscal 2026? · Above 5060 | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5040 customers with arr over $100k in fiscal 2026? · Above 5040 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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