What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 15¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.98.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 16% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 15%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Danielle Smith out as UCP leader on Kalshi

If Danielle Smith of the United Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bloomberg News, United Conservative Party, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

15%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

30% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
15¢ (now)	0.9¢	$2.98	15.9%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Danielle Smith announce her departure as UCP leader before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	26	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Danielle Smith announce her departure as UCP leader before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	60%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Danielle Smith announce her departure as UCP leader before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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