What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 58¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.45.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 60% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 58%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Carvana KPI on Kalshi

If Carvana Co. reports above 280000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

58%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

83% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
58¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.47	59.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Carvana Co. report above 270000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027? · Above 270000	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	238	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report above 265000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027? · Above 265000	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	157	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report above 260000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027? · Above 260000	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	79%	142	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report above 255000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027? · Above 255000	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	83%	132	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report above 250000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027? · Above 250000	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	132	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report above 245000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027? · Above 245000	86¢	86%	0.9¢	—	29%	132	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report above 240000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027? · Above 240000	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	17%	132	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report above 220000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027? · Above 220000	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	132	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report above 280000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027? · Above 280000	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report above 275000 retail vehicle unit sales in Q1 2027? · Above 275000	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.