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CS2 Spread on Kalshi
If PsychoFace wins by over 1.5 maps in the CCT Europe 2026: PsychoFace vs. Leo Team CS2 match originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026 at 7:00 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: HLTV, Liquipedia.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FURIA wins by over 1.5 maps · FURIA wins by over 1.5 maps | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| PsychoFace wins by over 1.5 maps · PsychoFace wins by over 1.5 maps | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| Leo Team wins by over 1.5 maps · Leo Team wins by over 1.5 maps | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| Legacy wins by over 1.5 maps · Legacy wins by over 1.5 maps | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| MINT wins by over 1.5 maps · MINT wins by over 1.5 maps | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 12, 18:00 UTC |
| Leo Team wins by over 1.5 maps · Leo Team wins by over 1.5 maps | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 12, 18:00 UTC |
| maybe wins by over 1.5 maps · maybe wins by over 1.5 maps | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| G2 Ares wins by over 1.5 maps · G2 Ares wins by over 1.5 maps | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Honvéd wins by over 1.5 maps · Honvéd wins by over 1.5 maps | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Butterfly wins by over 1.5 maps · Butterfly wins by over 1.5 maps | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| BakS eSports wins by over 1.5 maps · BakS eSports wins by over 1.5 maps | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 12, 09:00 UTC |
| Azuolas wins by over 1.5 maps · Azuolas wins by over 1.5 maps | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 12, 09:00 UTC |
| The Last Resort wins by over 1.5 maps · The Last Resort wins by over 1.5 maps | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 12, 18:00 UTC |
| megoshort wins by over 1.5 maps · megoshort wins by over 1.5 maps | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 12, 18:00 UTC |
| ILLYRIANS wins by over 1.5 maps · ILLYRIANS wins by over 1.5 maps | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
| ex-Zero Tenacity wins by over 1.5 maps · ex-Zero Tenacity wins by over 1.5 maps | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 12, 12:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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