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Critics Choice Award for Best Foreign Film on Kalshi
If Yellow Letters has won Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Critics Choice Awards.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will La Bola Negra win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · La Bola Negra | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 80,551 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Godzilla Minus Zero win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Godzilla Minus Zero | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 22,618 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Woman Unknown win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Woman Unknown | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 21,508 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will All of a Sudden win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · All of a Sudden | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 15,511 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Possible Love win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Possible Love | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 14,945 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fjord win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Fjord | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 13,925 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Tie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,150 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will La Gradiva win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · La Gradiva | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,830 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iron Boy win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Iron Boy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,174 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yellow Letters win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Yellow Letters | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,877 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rose win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Rose | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,584 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fatherland win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Fatherland | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,565 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Everytime win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Everytime | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,048 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shame and Money win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Shame and Money | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,669 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Coward win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Coward | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,736 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Minotaur win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Minotaur | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,617 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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