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Critics Choice Award for Best TV Drama Supporting Actress on Kalshi
If Tie has won Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Critics Choice Awards.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tie win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6,050 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Allison Janney win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Allison Janney | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,089 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sydney Sweeney win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Sydney Sweeney | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 46 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Supriya Ganesh win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Supriya Ganesh | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 23 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Olivia Munn win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Olivia Munn | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 15 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Demi Moore win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Demi Moore | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 15 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Katherine LaNasa win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Katherine LaNasa | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 13 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Dearden win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Taylor Dearden | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sepideh Moafi win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Sepideh Moafi | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marisa Abela win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Marisa Abela | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Julianne Nicholson win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Julianne Nicholson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Isa Briones win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Isa Briones | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fiona Dourif win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Fiona Dourif | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cynthia Nixon win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Cynthia Nixon | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amanda Peet win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Amanda Peet | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ann Dowd win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Ann Dowd | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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