Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Inflation on Kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 5.0% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Market says (typical open contract)
13%
Median YES price across 42 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
26% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.04 | 13.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.9% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 124,090 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.8% | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 118,770 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 4.1% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 95,333 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 4.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 79,237 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 4.0% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 78,424 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.8% | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 74,892 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.9% | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 63,795 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.5% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 43,116 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.6% | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 37,657 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.7% | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 32,812 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 4.7% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 31,881 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 4.9% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 26,748 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 4.3% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 26,643 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 4.6% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 25,421 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 4.8% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 24,878 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 4.2% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 24,414 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 4.4% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 23,494 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 4.4% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 21,417 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 4.1% | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 20,578 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 4.0% | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 19,343 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.4% | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 16,115 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 4.7% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15,555 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.5% | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 15,211 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 4.3% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 14,846 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.7% | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 14,041 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.2% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 12,662 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.2% | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 12,534 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.4% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 12,240 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 4.5% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 12,235 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.3% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11,714 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 5.0% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 11,159 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.3% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 10,267 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.6% | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 9,587 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 5.0% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,331 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.1% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,142 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 4.6% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 7,712 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 4.2% | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 7,224 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 4.9% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,934 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 4.8% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,920 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.0% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,772 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 42 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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