Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Core inflation on Kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.5% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 31 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 2.9% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 56,419 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 2.2% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 47,615 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 2.5% | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 34,268 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 2.5% | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 26,340 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 2.7% | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 25,460 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.1% | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 23,575 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 2.4% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 23,459 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.1% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 22,763 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.2% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 20,216 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.0% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 20,088 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 2.9% | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 19,655 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 2.6% | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 19,020 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 2.6% | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 18,797 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 2.7% | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 17,987 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.4% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 17,612 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.0% | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 17,321 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.3% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 16,893 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.3% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 15,402 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 2.3% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 15,354 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 2.8% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 14,648 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.0% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 2.0% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 12,934 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.2% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 12,663 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 2.8% | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 12,285 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 3.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 12,219 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 2.4% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 10,028 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.4% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 9,917 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 2.2% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,837 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 2.3% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7,771 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 3.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,023 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in December 2026? · Above 2.1% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,775 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in November 2026? · Above 2.1% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,473 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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