Markets › Kalshi › Economics
CPI core on Kalshi
If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for December 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 33 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in October? · Above 0.1% | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 326,849 | Nov 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in October? · Above 0.3% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 199,893 | Nov 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in October? · Above 0.2% | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 187,051 | Nov 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in October? · Above 0.0% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 120,720 | Nov 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in October? · Above 0.4% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 92,365 | Nov 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in October? · Above 0.5% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 76,527 | Nov 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.6% in October? · Above 0.6% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 63,022 | Nov 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.7% in October? · Above 0.7% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 41,553 | Nov 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.7% in November? · Above 0.7% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 39,585 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.9% in December? · Above 0.9% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 31,996 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in November? · Above 0.4% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 23,839 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in November? · Above 0.3% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 17,194 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in November? · Above 0.2% | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 16,599 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in December? · Above 0.3% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 15,227 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.6% in December? · Above 0.6% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11,251 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 1.0% in October? · Above 1.0% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,194 | Nov 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in November? · Above 0.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,767 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in November? · Above 0.0% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 8,243 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in December? · Above 0.5% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8,017 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in November? · Above 0.1% | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 7,846 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in December? · Above 0.4% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6,588 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.9% in November? · Above 0.9% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,281 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.8% in October? · Above 0.8% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,288 | Nov 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in December? · Above 0.2% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 4,774 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.6% in November? · Above 0.6% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,301 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.9% in October? · Above 0.9% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,028 | Nov 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.7% in December? · Above 0.7% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,718 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 1.0% in November? · Above 1.0% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,514 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in December? · Above 0.0% | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,451 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.8% in November? · Above 0.8% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,053 | Dec 10, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in December? · Above 0.1% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 2,516 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 0.8% in December? · Above 0.8% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 869 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
| Will CPI Core rise more than 1.0% in December? · Above 1.0% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 280 | Jan 13, 13:25 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.