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Copa Del Rey Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Salamanca vs Celta Vigo professional Copa del Rey soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
33% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UE Tavernes wins · UE Tavernes | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 37,242 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Alcoron wins · Alcoron | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 37,240 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 16,386 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Valencia wins · Valencia | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 16,127 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Jaen wins · Jaen | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 6,608 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 2,285 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Real Betis wins · Real Betis | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1,777 | Nov 14, 18:00 UTC |
| Mijas wins · Mijas | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1,308 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Navalcarnero wins · Navalcarnero | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,116 | Nov 14, 18:00 UTC |
| Leganes wins · Leganes | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 799 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 483 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Salamanca wins · Salamanca | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 63 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 47 | Nov 14, 18:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 34 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Celta Vigo wins · Celta Vigo | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 18 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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