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Congress Testify this year? on Kalshi
If James Donaldson has testified in front of Congress after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Ghislaine Maxwell | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 37,334 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jerome Powell testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Jerome Powell | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 14% | 12,276 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Zuckerberg testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Mark Zuckerberg | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 10,650 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shou Zi Chew testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Shou Zi Chew | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 7,607 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Anthony Fauci testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Anthony Fauci | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,724 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Altman testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Sam Altman | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 5,287 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Barack Obama testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Barack Obama | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,524 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Donaldson testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · James Donaldson | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 983 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jelly Roll testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Jelly Roll | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 874 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Taylor Swift | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 357 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Stewart testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Jon Stewart | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 357 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Biden testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Joe Biden | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 324 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027? · Kamala Harris | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 236 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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