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How much will the Commerce Department receive in gifts and bequests, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts, in FY2026? on Kalshi
If the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts is above 5000000 for fiscal year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
35% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 100000000 for fiscal year 2026? · Above $100M | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 6,947 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 1000000000 for fiscal year 2026? · Above $1B | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,189 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 2000000000 for fiscal year 2026? · Above $2B | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,822 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 6000000000 for fiscal year 2026? · Above $6B | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,687 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 4000000000 for fiscal year 2026? · Above $4B | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,676 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 1000000 for fiscal year 2026? · Above $1M | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,222 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 5000000 for fiscal year 2026? · Above $5M | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 945 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 10000000 for fiscal year 2026? · Above $10M | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 317 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 50000000 for fiscal year 2026? · Above $50M | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 213 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 500000000 for fiscal year 2026? · Above $500M | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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