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US imports of goods from China on Kalshi
If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are below $300 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $240 billion? · Below $240 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,635 | Feb 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $280 billion? · Below $280 billion | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,578 | Feb 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $260 billion? · Below $260 billion | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 988 | Feb 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion? · Below $300 billion | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 733 | Feb 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $220 billion? · Below $220 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 315 | Feb 04, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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