What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Chipotle KPI on Kalshi

If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports Above -1.5% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 0.0% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 0.0%	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	2,410	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4.0% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 4.0%	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	41%	1,925	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 3.5% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 3.5%	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	59%	1,879	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above -1.5% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above -1.5%	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	630	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 1.5% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 1.5%	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	57%	608	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 3.0% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 3.0%	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	83%	573	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 2.5% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 2.5%	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	97%	566	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above -0.5% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above -0.5%	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	15%	550	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above -1% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above -1%	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	11%	440	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4380 total restaurant count in Q1 2027? · Above 4380	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	404	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 2.0% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 2.0%	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	75%	404	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4.5% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 4.5%	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	359	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 0.5% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 0.5%	86¢	86%	0.9¢	—	29%	311	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4480 total restaurant count in Q1 2027? · Above 4480	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	228	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 5% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 5%	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	198	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4440 total restaurant count in Q1 2027? · Above 4440	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	176	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4460 total restaurant count in Q1 2027? · Above 4460	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	171	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 1.0% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 1.0%	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	41%	148	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4470 total restaurant count in Q1 2027? · Above 4470	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	132	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4450 total restaurant count in Q1 2027? · Above 4450	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	132	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4430 total restaurant count in Q1 2027? · Above 4430	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	132	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4420 total restaurant count in Q1 2027? · Above 4420	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	132	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4400 total restaurant count in Q1 2027? · Above 4400	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	132	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report above 4410 total restaurant count in Q1 2027? · Above 4410	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	66	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 5.5% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q1 2027? · Above 5.5%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.