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Closer Senate Race: Montana or New Jersey? on Kalshi
If New Jersey US Senate has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Montana US Senate and New Jersey US Senate as of Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: New Jersey Division of Elections, Montana Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
80%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
40% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 80¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $0.70 | 81.1% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Montana US Senate have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Montana US Senate and New Jersey US Senate? · Montana US Senate | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1,527 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New Jersey US Senate have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Montana US Senate and New Jersey US Senate? · New Jersey US Senate | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,123 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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