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Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas? on Kalshi
If Texas US Senate has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Alaska US Senate and Texas US Senate as of Dec 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Alaska Division of Elections, Texas Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
85%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
30% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 85¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $0.53 | 85.9% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Texas US Senate have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Alaska US Senate and Texas US Senate? · Texas US Senate | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 3,690 | Dec 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska US Senate have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Alaska US Senate and Texas US Senate? · Alaska US Senate | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 3,459 | Dec 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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