Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology
Claude Model Release on Kalshi
If Anthropic releases Opus 5.6 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Anthropic.
Market says (typical open contract)
63%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
74% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 63¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.30 | 64.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 323,386 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 243,981 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Fable 5.2 before Nov 16, 2026? · Before Nov 16, 2026 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,547 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Mar 31, 2027? · Before Mar 31, 2027 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 6,333 | Mar 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Fable 5.2 before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,658 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026? · Before Dec 31, 2026 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 3,789 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 3,592 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Nov 16, 2026? · Before Nov 16, 2026 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 3,570 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027? · Before Jun 30, 2027 | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1,078 | Jun 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Fable 5.2 before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 619 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Opus 5.6 before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 371 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Opus 5.6 before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 200 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Sep 30, 2027? · Before Sep 30, 2027 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 200 | Sep 30, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Fable 5.2 before Dec 16, 2026? · Before Dec 16, 2026 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 180 | Dec 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Opus 5.6 before Nov 16, 2026? · Before Nov 16, 2026 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 61 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Opus 5.6 before Dec 16, 2026? · Before Dec 16, 2026 | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 42 | Dec 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027? · Before Dec 31, 2027 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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