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Chinese AI model #1 in 2027 on Kalshi
If any AI model developed by a company headquartered in China is the #1 model on Arena's Text Arena overall leaderboard (no style control) during Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am EST through Dec 31, 2027 at 11:59pm EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 32¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.38 | 33.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Chinese AI model be #1 in 2027? · any AI model developed by a company headquartered in China | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 116 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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