Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Poland interest rate decision on Kalshi
If the Narodowy Bank Polski takes the action of maintain current rate at its December Monetary Policy Council meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Narodowy Bank Polski, Trading Economics.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike 1-25bps at the December Monetary Policy Council meeting? · Hike 1-25bps | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 500 | Dec 02, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the Narodowy Bank Polski maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Council meeting? · Maintain current rate | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 267 | Dec 02, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut more than 25bps at the December Monetary Policy Council meeting? · Cut more than 25bps | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 50 | Dec 02, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the Narodowy Bank Polski hike more than 25bps at the December Monetary Policy Council meeting? · Hike more than 25bps | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1 | Dec 02, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the Narodowy Bank Polski cut 1-25bps at the December Monetary Policy Council meeting? · Cut 1-25bps | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 02, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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