Markets › Kalshi › Economics
EU CENTRAL BANK POLICY INTEREST RATE on Kalshi
If the European Central Bank takes the action of Maintain current rate at December ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: European Central Bank, Trading Economics.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the December ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting? · Hike 1-25bps | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 7,363 | Dec 17, 13:14 UTC |
| Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the December ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting? · Maintain current rate | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 3,301 | Dec 17, 13:14 UTC |
| Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the December ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting? · Hike more than 25bps | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 545 | Dec 17, 13:14 UTC |
| Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the December ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting? · Cut 1-25bps | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 236 | Dec 17, 13:14 UTC |
| Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the December ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting? · Cut more than 25bps | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 235 | Dec 17, 13:14 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.