Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Instacart app downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Instacart app downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 199.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
35% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.87 | 19.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Instacart app downloads for November 2026 be above 181 ? · Above 181 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,832 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Instacart app downloads for November 2026 be above 146 ? · Above 146 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 1,583 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Instacart app downloads for November 2026 be above 132.5 ? · Above 132.5 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 1,056 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Instacart app downloads for November 2026 be above 166 ? · Above 166 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 850 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Instacart app downloads for November 2026 be above 159.5 ? · Above 159.5 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 847 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Instacart app downloads for November 2026 be above 199.5 ? · Above 199.5 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 500 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Instacart app downloads for November 2026 be above 173 ? · Above 173 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 395 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Instacart app downloads for November 2026 be above 153 ? · Above 153 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.