What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 29¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.50.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 30% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 29%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will Maryland approve the Camden Yards ground lease by the 2027 deadline? on Kalshi

If the Maryland Board of Public Works announces final approval of a ground lease and its accompanying development plan granting the Baltimore Orioles or an affiliate the right to develop the state-owned land north of Lee Street at the Camden Yards Sports Complex before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: social media of the White House, ABC, the Federal Register, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, social media of the White House and the President of the United States, NBC, the White House, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, The New York Times, government agency, Semafor, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the President of the United States.

Market says (typical open contract)

29%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

57% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
29¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.49	30.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the Maryland Board of Public Works announce final approval of a ground lease and its accompanying development plan granting the Baltimore Orioles or an affiliate the right to develop the state-owned land north of Lee Street at the Camden Yards Sports Complex before Jan 1, 2028? · Yes	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	57%	3	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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