Markets › Kalshi › Elections
California general elections on Kalshi
If Mai Vang wins the 2026 CA-07 House election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the California Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 97¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $0.11 | 97.2% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the 2026 CA-07 House election? · Doris Matsui | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 269,950 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2026 CA-07 House election? · Mai Vang | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 250,516 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2026 CA-04 House election? · Eric Jones | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 160,539 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will win the 2026 CA-04 House election? · Mike Thompson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 124,776 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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