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California permitted housing units on Kalshi
If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 125,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
56%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
89% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 56¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.54 | 57.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 125,000? · Above 125,000 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 27,426 | Jan 27, 12:59 UTC |
| Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000? · Above 115,000 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 20,193 | Jan 27, 12:59 UTC |
| Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 120,000? · Above 120,000 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 18,363 | Jan 27, 12:59 UTC |
| Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 110,000? · Above 110,000 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 11,697 | Jan 27, 12:59 UTC |
| Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000? · Above 100,000 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8,634 | Jan 27, 12:59 UTC |
| Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 105,000? · Above 105,000 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 6,042 | Jan 27, 12:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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