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German Women's Bundesliga Game on Kalshi
If Hoffenheim wins the Hoffenheim vs Freiburg professional German Women's Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim wins · Hoffenheim | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 11:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 16, 11:00 UTC |
| Freiburg wins · Freiburg | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 11:00 UTC |
| Union Berlin wins · Union Berlin | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Werder wins · Werder | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Wolfsburg wins · Wolfsburg | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 16:55 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 16, 16:55 UTC |
| Bayern wins · Bayern | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 16:55 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 15, 17:30 UTC |
| Mainz 05 wins · Mainz 05 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 15, 17:30 UTC |
| Hamburger SV wins · Hamburger SV | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 15, 17:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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