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Bundesliga Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Augsburg vs Mainz professional Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
24%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
49% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.66 | 25.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Köln wins · FC Köln | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 10,318 | Nov 22, 19:30 UTC |
| Bayern Munich wins · Bayern Munich | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 9,945 | Nov 22, 19:30 UTC |
| Dortmund wins · Dortmund | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 3,380 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Freiburg wins · Freiburg | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 974 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 663 | Nov 22, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 587 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Leipzig wins · Leipzig | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 390 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Leverkusen wins · Leverkusen | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 196 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Elversberg wins · Elversberg | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 173 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Hamburg wins · Hamburg | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 104 | Nov 24, 16:30 UTC |
| M´gladbach wins · M´gladbach | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 97 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Schalke wins · Schalke | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 97 | Nov 23, 17:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 86 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Hoffenheim wins · Hoffenheim | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 73 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 67 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 64 | Nov 24, 16:30 UTC |
| Frankfurt wins · Frankfurt | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 64 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Stuttgart wins · Stuttgart | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 58 | Nov 23, 17:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 57 | Nov 24, 14:30 UTC |
| Bremen wins · Bremen | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 37 | Nov 24, 16:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 35 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Mainz wins · Mainz | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 27 | Nov 24, 14:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 22 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Union Berlin wins · Union Berlin | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 5 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Augsburg wins · Augsburg | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 3 | Nov 24, 14:30 UTC |
| Paderborn wins · Paderborn | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 23, 14:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 23, 17:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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