What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.29.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 6% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Who will be Brazilian defense minister after the election? on Kalshi

If Carlos Alberto dos Santos Cruz formally takes office as Minister of Defense as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, Deutsche Welle, MS Now, ABC, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Al Jazeera, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, CNN, Fox News, Reuters, ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, BBC.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

12% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)	0.4¢	$3.29	6.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Carlos Alberto dos Santos Cruz be Minister of Defense as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Carlos Alberto dos Santos Cruz	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Márcio Elias Rosa be Minister of Defense as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Márcio Elias Rosa	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Geraldo Alckmin be Minister of Defense as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Geraldo Alckmin	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Simone Tebet be Minister of Defense as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Simone Tebet	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Renan Calheiros be Minister of Defense as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Renan Calheiros	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Maria Elizabeth Rocha be Minister of Defense as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Maria Elizabeth Rocha	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will José Múcio Monteiro be Minister of Defense as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · José Múcio Monteiro	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Cinara Wagner Fredo be Minister of Defense as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Cinara Wagner Fredo	35¢	35%	1.6¢	—	70%	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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