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Brasileiro Serie A Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Santos vs Gremio professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 23, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
43%
Median YES price across 63 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
86% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro wins · Atletico Mineiro | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 2,090 | Nov 16, 21:30 UTC |
| Vasco da Gama wins · Vasco da Gama | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 895 | Nov 16, 23:30 UTC |
| Mirassol wins · Mirassol | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 507 | Nov 16, 21:30 UTC |
| Palmeiras wins · Palmeiras | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 386 | Nov 20, 23:30 UTC |
| Gremio wins · Gremio | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 314 | Nov 21, 00:30 UTC |
| Flamengo wins · Flamengo | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 222 | Nov 20, 23:30 UTC |
| Cruzeiro wins · Cruzeiro | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 172 | Nov 20, 23:30 UTC |
| Santos wins · Santos | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 129 | Nov 20, 22:30 UTC |
| Chapecoense wins · Chapecoense | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 121 | Nov 16, 23:30 UTC |
| Internacional wins · Internacional | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 68 | Nov 21, 22:30 UTC |
| Botafogo wins · Botafogo | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 62 | Nov 21, 00:30 UTC |
| Remo wins · Remo | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 49 | Nov 20, 23:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 47 | Nov 21, 22:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 52% | 41 | Nov 20, 23:30 UTC |
| Coritiba wins · Coritiba | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 37 | Nov 20, 22:30 UTC |
| Corinthians wins · Corinthians | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 36 | Nov 21, 00:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 29 | Nov 16, 21:30 UTC |
| Bahia wins · Bahia | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 24 | Nov 21, 00:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 20 | Nov 20, 22:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 1 | Nov 16, 23:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1 | Nov 20, 23:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 21, 00:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 21, 00:30 UTC |
| Chapecoense wins · Chapecoense | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 20, 23:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 00:00 UTC |
| Santos wins · Santos | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 00:00 UTC |
| Gremio wins · Gremio | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Palmeiras wins · Palmeiras | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Chapecoense wins · Chapecoense | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 21:00 UTC |
| Vitoria wins · Vitoria | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 25, 22:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 25, 22:30 UTC |
| Internacional wins · Internacional | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 25, 22:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 25, 23:00 UTC |
| Sao Paulo wins · Sao Paulo | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 25, 23:00 UTC |
| Botafogo wins · Botafogo | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 25, 23:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Cruzeiro wins · Cruzeiro | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Chapecoense wins · Chapecoense | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 24, 19:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 63 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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