Markets › Kalshi › Financials
BP Credit Card Spend on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc BP Credit Card Spend (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 135 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BP Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 135 ? · Above 135 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 05, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BP Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 127.5 ? · Above 127.5 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 05, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BP Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 124.5 ? · Above 124.5 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 05, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BP Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 121.5 ? · Above 121.5 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 05, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BP Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 119 ? · Above 119 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 05, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BP Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 116.5 ? · Above 116.5 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 05, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BP Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 113.5 ? · Above 113.5 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 05, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BP Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 107.5 ? · Above 107.5 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 05, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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