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Next Bond actor on Kalshi
If Harry Styles is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Variety.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond? · Callum Turner | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 856,864 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond? · Jacob Elordi | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 378,321 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jack Lowden be the next James Bond? · Jack Lowden | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 377,439 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Robert Pattinson be the next James Bond? · Robert Pattinson | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 367,205 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond? · Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 306,582 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh O'Connor be the next James Bond? · Josh O'Connor | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 294,692 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Harris Dickinson be the next James Bond? · Harris Dickinson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 157,042 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond? · Henry Cavill | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 153,211 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Theo James be the next James Bond? · Theo James | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 134,825 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Holland be the next James Bond? · Tom Holland | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 120,545 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Idris Elba be the next James Bond? · Idris Elba | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 96,662 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jack Barton be the next James Bond? · Jack Barton | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 80,364 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Damson Idris be the next James Bond? · Damson Idris | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 75,669 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Francis be the next James Bond? · Tom Francis | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 68,036 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicholas Hoult be the next James Bond? · Nicholas Hoult | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 65,710 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jack O'Connell be the next James Bond? · Jack O'Connell | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 63,890 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aaron Pierre be the next James Bond? · Aaron Pierre | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 59,007 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Norton be the next James Bond? · James Norton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 58,017 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Richard Madden be the next James Bond? · Richard Madden | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 49,830 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Regé-Jean Page be the next James Bond? · Regé-Jean Page | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 41,483 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jonathan Bailey be the next James Bond? · Jonathan Bailey | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 33,144 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cillian Murphy be the next James Bond? · Cillian Murphy | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 31,467 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Hardy be the next James Bond? · Tom Hardy | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 28,486 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Paul Mescal be the next James Bond? · Paul Mescal | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 25,730 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will George MacKay be the next James Bond? · George MacKay | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 24,406 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Blyth be the next James Bond? · Tom Blyth | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 23,751 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Scott Rose-Marsh be the next James Bond? · Scott Rose-Marsh | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 23,675 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charlie Hunnam be the next James Bond? · Charlie Hunnam | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 22,042 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Henry Ashton be the next James Bond? · Henry Ashton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 20,516 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicholas Galitzine be the next James Bond? · Nicholas Galitzine | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 20,081 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Alwyn be the next James Bond? · Joe Alwyn | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 13,615 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Gyasi be the next James Bond? · David Gyasi | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 9,710 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Luke Evans be the next James Bond? · Luke Evans | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 964 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Harry Styles be the next James Bond? · Harry Styles | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 505 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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