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Who will hold Marsha Blackburn's Senate seat on February 1, 2027? on Kalshi
If Pete Hegseth officially holds the position of United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Senate.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Hegseth be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Pete Hegseth | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 13,004 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Tim Burchett be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Tim Burchett | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 4,573 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Glenn Jacobs be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Glenn Jacobs | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 3,941 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Marsha Blackburn be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Marsha Blackburn | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,844 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Damon Hininger be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Damon Hininger | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2,054 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Chuck Fleischmann be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Chuck Fleischmann | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,101 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Stuart McWhorter be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Stuart McWhorter | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 960 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Diana Harshbarger be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Diana Harshbarger | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 676 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Bill Lee be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Bill Lee | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 594 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Cameron Sexton be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Cameron Sexton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 357 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Andy Ogles be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · Andy Ogles | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 303 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will no one be United States Senator from Tennessee, Class I on Feb 1, 2027? · No one | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 255 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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