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Bills become law this year? on Kalshi
If legislation that conditions eligibility for Department of Defense contracts on covered contractors refraining from stock buybacks has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: White House, Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027? · FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 166,371 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation principally aimed at establishing a federal framework for college sports, including through NIL preemption, antitrust treatment of association rules, athlete-compensation standards, student-athlete protections, or employment-status rules become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Protect College Sports Act | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 58,318 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that renames Washington Dulles International Airport after Donald Trump become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Trump Airport | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 36,434 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the testing and deployment of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems become law before Jan 1, 2027? · SELF DRIVE Act | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 34,441 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 32,090 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that allows year-round nationwide sale of E15 fuel by extending the Clean Air Act Reid Vapor Pressure waiver to ethanol blends up to 15% become law before Jan 1, 2027? · E15 year-round sales | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 31,497 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 25,754 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that would require Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary become law before Jan 1, 2027? · $2.50 Coin | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 23,877 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that redefines “showerhead” for DOE rules to allow multi-nozzle systems become law before Jan 1, 2027? · SHOWER Act | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 22,353 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Credit-card routing competition | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 21,448 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027? · DEFIANCE Act | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 19,186 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that prohibits data center power usage from increasing consumers' electric utility bills become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Data center utility cost protection | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 18,529 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that pairs enhanced border security and mandatory E-Verify with asylum system reforms and an earned legal status program (without a path to citizenship) for certain long-term undocumented immigrants become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Dignity Act | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 17,975 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Export-control chip security | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 16,853 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that extends Section 181 expensing for film and television productions become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Film/TV production expensing | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 11% | 16,458 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that provides multi-year reauthorization and funding for federal surface transportation programs through the Highway Trust Fund and general fund appropriations become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Surface transportation reauthorization | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15,789 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Critical-minerals stockpile | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 15,742 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that mandates expanded adoption of ADS-B “Out” aircraft tracking technology become law before Jan 1, 2027? · ROTOR Act | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 14,904 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period become law before Jan 1, 2027? · AI-chip export licensing | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 14,508 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom become law before Jan 1, 2027? · White House ballroom funding | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 13,222 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 9,947 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that imposes enhanced federal safety requirements on freight rail carriers and trains transporting hazardous materials (e.g., mandates for wayside defect detectors, two-person crews, tank car safety standards, and state emergency notification) become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Railway safety bill | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 9,339 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that changes the official name of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Fort Liberty become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 9,218 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that imposes an annual federal registration fee on electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with the revenue dedicated to the Highway Trust Fund become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8,107 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation principally aimed at strengthening federal efforts to protect Jewish Americans from antisemitism, including through civil-rights enforcement, physical security support, threat monitoring, or online-platform transparency become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Jewish American security | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 6,978 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that limits out-of-pocket costs for insulin for privately insured patients to no more than $40 per month, per 30-day supply, or equivalent monthly period become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Insulin cost cap | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 6,482 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that conditions eligibility for Department of Defense contracts on covered contractors refraining from stock buybacks become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 5,308 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that establishes a federal intellectual-property right protecting individuals’ voices and visual likenesses from unauthorized digital replicas become law before Jan 1, 2027? · NO FAKES Act | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,668 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation principally aimed at curbing federal coercion of speech intermediaries (social media platforms, AI systems, broadcasters), including through a private right of action against agencies or officials, monetary damages, or mandatory disclosure of government-to-platform communications become law before Jan 1, 2027? · JAWBONE Act | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,043 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that bars government agencies or private entities from using ADS-B aircraft-tracking data to identify aircraft for the purpose of obtaining revenue from the aircraft owner or operator without consent become law before Jan 1, 2027? · ADS-B revenue-use restriction | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,102 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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