What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 98¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.09.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 98% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 98%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Big Sky Opening on Kalshi

If the first calendar day in the 2026-27 winter season on which Big Sky Ski Resort conducts Seasonal Opening Operations occurs before Nov 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: USA Today, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Big Sky Ski Resort, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

98%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

5% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
97¢ (now)	0.2¢	$0.11	97.2%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Big Sky open before Dec 6, 2026? · Before Dec 6, 2026	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	156,244	Dec 12, 15:00 UTC
Will Big Sky open before Nov 29, 2026? · Before Nov 29, 2026	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	67,861	Dec 05, 15:00 UTC
Will Big Sky open before Dec 13, 2026? · Before Dec 13, 2026	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	55,883	Dec 19, 15:00 UTC
Will Big Sky open before Nov 15, 2026? · Before Nov 15, 2026	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	29,950	Nov 21, 15:00 UTC
Will Big Sky open before Nov 22, 2026? · Before Nov 22, 2026	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	28,687	Nov 28, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.