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Bedford mayoral election winner on Kalshi
If the Reform UK candidate wins the 2027 Bedford mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bedford Borough Council.
Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
28% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.01 | 14.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Reform UK candidate win the 2027 Bedford mayoral election? · Reform UK | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | May 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Liberal Democrat candidate win the 2027 Bedford mayoral election? · Liberal Democrats | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | May 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Labour Party candidate win the 2027 Bedford mayoral election? · Labour | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | May 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Green Party candidate win the 2027 Bedford mayoral election? · Green | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | May 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Conservative Party candidate win the 2027 Bedford mayoral election? · Conservative | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | May 05, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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