What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Ballon d'Or on Kalshi

If Yan Diomande wins the men's Ballon d'Or in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, ESPN, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 80 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Lamine Yamal	26¢	26%	1.4¢	—	53%	1,704	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Kylian Mbappe	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	35%	747	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Alisson Becker	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	147	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Harry Kane	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	147	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Raphinha	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	35%	51	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Desire Doue	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	26	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Michael Olise	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	4	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Erling Haaland	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	4	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Cole Palmer	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	3	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Jude Bellingham	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	2	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Yan Diomande	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Xavi Simons	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Warren Zaire-Emery	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · William Saliba	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Willian Pacho	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Victor Osimhen	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Vinicius Junior	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Vitinha	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Viktor Gyokeres	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Unai Simon	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Tijjani Reijnders	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Thibaut Courtois	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Scott McTominay	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Sadio Mane	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Serhou Guirassy	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Savinho	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Rodri	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Robert Lewandowski	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Rafael Leao	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Rayan Cherki	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Phil Foden	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Pedri	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Pau Cubarsi	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Omar Marmoush	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Ousmane Dembele	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Nico Williams	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Nico Paz	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Nuno Mendes	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Mohamed Salah	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? · Marcus Rashford	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 80 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.