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Azuay prefect election winner on Kalshi
If Sebastián Cevallos wins the 2026 Azuay prefect election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Electoral Council of Ecuador.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sebastián Cevallos win the 2026 Azuay prefect election? · Sebastián Cevallos | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pablo Webster win the 2026 Azuay prefect election? · Pablo Webster | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Paolo Carpio win the 2026 Azuay prefect election? · Paolo Carpio | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gustavo Sánchez win the 2026 Azuay prefect election? · Gustavo Sánchez | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gabriela Ochoa win the 2026 Azuay prefect election? · Gabriela Ochoa | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David López win the 2026 Azuay prefect election? · David López | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Consuelo Orellana win the 2026 Azuay prefect election? · Consuelo Orellana | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ángel Cartuche win the 2026 Azuay prefect election? · Ángel Cartuche | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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